Trading GBP / USD The British Retail Sales Data

In the UK Retail Sales Data or retail sales are considered as an early indicator for consumer spending which will have an impact on growth. Indicators are usually high impact on the GBP is released every month, such as the percentage change in the value of sales compared to the previous month (month over month or m / m), and were compared with the same month in the previous year (year over year or y / y) , Data release consists of Retail Sales and Retail Sales total core (core) not included automotive and fuel, but high impact on the GBP is the Retail Sales total, usually for the m / m.

Today is July 21 at 15:30 pm Retail Sales Data to be released in June 2016 the total UK m / m. Last May total Retail Sales m / m rose 0.9%, higher than forecast to rise 0.3% but lower than in April rose 1.9%, and for the month of June 2016 is expected to contract by 0.4% (or -0.4%) , Results released higher than expected will likely cause the GBP / USD is higher, and vice versa if lower than expected will lead the GBP / USD is likely to weaken.

Sentiment and critical levels

Last week the Bank of England (BoE) made a surprise by maintaining the benchmark interest rate at + 0.5%, not as predicted the market will occur in accordance with the gesture of cutting governor Mark Carney. However, the occurrence of Brexit will keep the BoE easing monetary policy and market estimates likely on August 4 meeting will be done cutting interest rates. Meanwhile back in positive sentiment towards the USD following the improved employment data, manufacturing and retail sales. Thus fundamentally sentiment GBP / USD on the release of the data was likely bearish.

Technically, until 5:22 o'clock pm this day 4 hour chart above shows the GBP / USD moved sideways with a range between 1.2863 and 1.3482 levels, with a bullish tendency:

1. The rate broke the resistance curve of exponential moving average (ema) moves above the curve 55 and the middle band of Bollinger Bands indicator.
2. The point indicator Parabolic SAR (Parabolic Stop And Reverse) moved to the underside of the bar candlestick, showing bullish tendencies.
3. The curve MACD cut signal curve (red) from the bottom and moving thereon, and a histogram lines OSMA also be above the level of midnight, indicates bullish sentiment.
4. The curve of the RSI indicator is above the center line (level 50.0).
5. Line ADX indicator green histogram that indicates a dominant bullish.

Weekly pivot levels: 1.3170

Resistance: 1.3317 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level); 1.3383; 1.3482; 1.3502; 1.3640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement); 1.3837; 1.3904 (50% Fibonacci retracement); 1.4004; 1.4167 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement); 1.4285; 1.4490 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement); 1.4615; 1.4736; 1.4804; 1.4880; 1.5000.

Support: 1.3119; 1.2928; 1.2863; 1.2796; 1.2649; 1.2235.

Indicators: exponential moving average (ema) 55; Bollinger Bands (20,2); Parabolic SAR (12:02, 0.2); MACD (12,26,9); OSMA; RSI (14); ADX (14).

Fibonacci retracement:

Swing point high: 1.5016 (highest price June 24, 2016)

Point swing low: 1.2796 (lowest price July 6, 2016)

5 scenarios movement of GBP / USD:

The market forecast for the total UK retail sales in June 2016 m / m: -0.4%.

1. If the results of the release according to estimates, is between -0.7% and -0.1%, then the possibility of GBP / USD still going to move in a range, which is moving to the limit of resistance or support is nearby and the possibility to penetrate the resistance level or the support is small.
2. If the result of the release of the above estimates, between 0.0% (stagnant) to + 0.4%, then the possibility of GBP / USD will break above the resistance level.
3. If the release is far above the forecast is higher than the + 0.4%, then the possibility of GBP / USD will break above resistance level 2.
4. If the results of the release below estimates, between -1.2% and -0.8%, then the possibility of GBP / USD will drop to penetrate the support level below it.
5. If the result of the release of far below expectations, which is lower than -1.2%, then the possibility of GBP / USD will break below the support level 2.

sumber : http://www.seputarforex.com/analisa/lihat.php?id=268813&title=trading_gbpusd_dengan_data_retail_sales_inggris_21_juli_2016